tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:24, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2315 United LAX 08:25 CLE 16:02 10% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 2641 United Flight history → LAX 22:35 CLE 06:10 11% 4% 0.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:24 → MSP 06:02DL 430 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CLE 10:11DL 1083 6h 47m 94% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 15:36 → CLE 18:35DL 1118 9h 20m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855 8h 17m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 08m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 7h 23m 94% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 3h 27m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CLE 23:44UA 2131 10h 05m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:20AA 2490 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 06:58 → CLE 10:48AA 1172 7h 35m 99% 86%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:50 → SEA 19:31AS 698 2h 42m Seattle SEA 22:13 → CLE 05:43 +1AS 269 9h 53m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:24 → MCO 18:30UA 1621 2h 05m Orlando MCO 20:35 → CLE 23:13UA 583 9h 49m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:00 → PHL 16:23AA 1528 52m Philadelphia PHL 17:15 → CLE 19:06AA 5862 · flown by Piedmont 8h 06m 72% 54%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:20 → EWR 19:04UA 2127 51m Newark EWR 19:55 → CLE 21:45UA 2398 8h 25m 64% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON