Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1952 LAX 07:12 → CLT 15:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2070 LAX 11:17 → CLT 19:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1952 American Flight history →	LAX 07:12	CLT 15:05	11%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 2115 American	LAX 23:17	CLT 07:11	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3035 American Flight history →	LAX 22:35	CLT 06:19	15%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 3175 American Flight history →	LAX 09:19	CLT 17:09	19%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 1596 American	LAX 12:57	CLT 20:52	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2070 American	LAX 11:17	CLT 19:12	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	1h 01m Houston	IAH 12:13 → CLT 15:43UA 765	6h 58m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	48m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820	6h 57m	85%	75%
American Details →	LAX 10:37 → IND 17:50AA 1899	1h 09m Indianapolis	IND 18:59 → CLT 20:40AA 586	7h 03m	86%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON