Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 14:26, is the safest bet: 51% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 458 Delta Flight history →	LAX 23:17	CVG 06:31	11%	2%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAX 06:05 → ORD 12:32AA 383	3h 57m Chicago	ORD 16:29 → CVG 18:53AA 4507 · flown by Republic	9h 48m	100%	91%
American Details →	LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:20AA 2490	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:32 → CVG 10:59AA 2610	7h 46m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 12:06 → ATL 19:23DL 395	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	9h 33m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:17 → DTW 13:34DL 2399	3h 42m Detroit	DTW 17:16 → CVG 18:35DL 5060 · flown by Endeavor	9h 18m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:24 → MSP 06:01DL 430	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954	6h 39m	95%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 28m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	7h 41m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:39DL 703	9h 24m	100%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAX 10:04 → PHL 18:45AA 738	55m Philadelphia	PHL 19:40 → CVG 21:53AA 5583 · flown by PSA	8h 49m	68%	54%
United Details →	LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487	47m Chicago	ORD 21:27 → CVG 23:41UA 1223	6h 15m	63%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON