Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 652 at 04:58 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 652 LAX 04:58 → DEN 08:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 715 LAX 18:02 → DEN 21:18 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 652 United	LAX 04:58	DEN 08:28	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2337 Southwest	LAX 06:43	DEN 10:00	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
F9 3156 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:30	DEN 10:03	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1912 United Flight history →	LAX 08:47	DEN 12:13	12%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:00	DEN 11:28	13%	3%	0.7%	83%
UA 2610 United Flight history →	LAX 18:45	DEN 22:15	13%	4%	0.6%	91%
OO 4948 SkyWest	LAX 14:16	DEN 17:51	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 360 United Flight history →	LAX 12:46	DEN 16:16	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 6517 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:08	DEN 22:31	14%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 2061 United Flight history →	LAX 10:55	DEN 14:27	14%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 1079 Southwest	LAX 09:47	DEN 13:00	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1049 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:36	DEN 23:55	15%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DEN 10:21	15%	4%	0.6%	95%
UA 2758 United Flight history →	LAX 14:30	DEN 18:00	16%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 1652 United	LAX 17:37	DEN 20:56	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2146 United Flight history →	LAX 16:10	DEN 19:40	17%	5%	0.6%	79%
F9 4346 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 13:49	DEN 17:25	17%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:53	DEN 18:18	18%	4%	0.7%	65%
WN 2340 Southwest	LAX 12:26	DEN 15:39	18%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1595 Southwest	LAX 13:49	DEN 17:06	20%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 715 Southwest	LAX 18:02	DEN 21:18	24%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON