Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2811 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2811 LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 500 LAX 13:46 → DFW 18:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2811 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	DFW 11:15	8%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 2746 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DFW 12:18	9%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 2490 American Flight history →	LAX 00:13	DFW 05:04	13%	5%	0.9%	92%
AA 971 American Flight history →	LAX 00:38	DFW 05:47	14%	6%	0.9%	85%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	LAX 08:05	DFW 13:18	14%	5%	0.9%	84%
DL 420 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:04	DFW 22:18	14%	5%	0.8%	82%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:41	DFW 14:48	15%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 1047 American Flight history →	LAX 09:03	DFW 14:19	17%	7%	0.9%	65%
F9 2564 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 16:14	DFW 21:28	17%	7%	1.0%	72%
AA 504 American	LAX 18:48	DFW 00:02	18%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 2024 American Flight history →	LAX 16:15	DFW 21:33	18%	8%	0.9%	54%
AA 1154 American	LAX 10:45	DFW 16:01	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1657 American Flight history →	LAX 15:13	DFW 20:33	20%	8%	0.9%	57%
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 01:00	DFW 06:06	20%	8%	1.1%	75%
AA 1760 American	LAX 11:58	DFW 17:09	22%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 500 American	LAX 13:46	DFW 18:59	22%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON