Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 4891 at 11:54, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 4891 SkyWest	LAX 11:54	DSM 17:19	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:24 → MSP 06:02DL 430	3h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 09:21 → DSM 10:37DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	8h 13m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → DSM 20:59DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor	9h 14m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 13:17 → DSM 14:33DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	6h 18m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 16:37 → DSM 17:27DL 5345 · flown by Endeavor	9h 57m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	9h 52m	99%	89%
American Details →	LAX 07:00 → DFW 12:18AA 2746	3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:56 → DSM 18:08AA 3930 · flown by Envoy	9h 08m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 19:54 → DSM 21:13DL 5253 · flown by Endeavor	7h 58m	100%	87%
United Details →	LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 13:02 → DSM 14:26UA 1658	7h 16m	97%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802	46m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → DSM 20:59DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor	7h 09m	69%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON