Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 6190 LAX 07:25 → ELP 10:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 330 LAX 11:47 → ELP 14:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6190 SkyWest	LAX 07:25	ELP 10:36	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6453 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:23	ELP 17:32	13%	5%	0.6%	94%
AA 4905 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:53	ELP 23:01	13%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 392 United	LAX 09:35	ELP 12:58	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 330 Southwest	LAX 11:47	ELP 14:53	16%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON