tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 3794 at 13:00, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3794 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 13:00 GEG 15:35 13% 6% 0.5% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 6h 37m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 13m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045 3h 04m Seattle SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest 7h 06m 97% 85%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668 1h 09m Portland PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250 4h 45m 95% 83%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 09:00 → SEA 11:52AS 482 2h 30m Seattle SEA 14:22 → GEG 15:25AS 2074 · flown by Horizon 6h 25m 93% 76%
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:10 → PHX 14:40AA 1994 2h 17m Phoenix PHX 16:57 → GEG 19:54AA 2876 6h 44m 91% 74%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305 3h 18m Seattle SEA 18:51 → GEG 19:57AS 448 7h 10m 99% 72%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748 1h 44m Seattle SEA 11:33 → GEG 12:40AS 454 5h 40m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 10:47 → SEA 13:35AS 798 47m Seattle SEA 14:22 → GEG 15:25AS 2074 · flown by Horizon 4h 38m 54% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON