Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 480 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 480 LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 803 LAX 10:05 → HNL 12:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 480 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:30	HNL 11:18	11%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 1158 United Flight history →	LAX 09:05	HNL 11:53	14%	5%	0.6%	89%
AS 801 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	HNL 09:54	15%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 465 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:55	HNL 16:43	18%	6%	0.6%	76%
DL 443 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:37	HNL 21:22	19%	4%	0.7%	84%
UA 1170 United Flight history →	LAX 17:05	HNL 19:44	19%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 31 American Flight history →	LAX 09:41	HNL 12:47	20%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 1224 United Flight history →	LAX 13:12	HNL 16:02	20%	8%	0.6%	84%
AS 556 Alaska	LAX 09:01	HNL 11:58	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 143 American Flight history →	LAX 14:56	HNL 17:54	23%	9%	0.6%	80%
AS 825 Alaska	LAX 08:23	HNL 11:07	24%	3%	0.8%	no record
SQ 7401 Singapore Airlines	LAX 07:14	HNL 10:11	25%	4%	1.3%	no record
AS 809 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:00	HNL 20:53	26%	7%	0.9%	74%
AA 297 American Flight history →	LAX 17:16	HNL 20:17	27%	10%	0.6%	74%
WN 1320 Southwest	LAX 18:32	HNL 21:16	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 803 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:05	HNL 12:58	33%	6%	0.9%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 08:02 → KOA 10:43AS 560	1h 36m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:19 → HNL 13:17AS 1077	8h 15m	98%	72%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:30 → LIH 11:42AS 963	1h 13m Lihue	LIH 12:55 → HNL 13:34AS 1074	8h 04m	90%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON