Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2282 LAX 21:19 → IAD 05:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1164 LAX 13:26 → IAD 21:33 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 21:19	IAD 05:18	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 00:09	IAD 07:45	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 22:27	IAD 06:24	11%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
UA 1506 United	LAX 16:34	IAD 00:31	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	12%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:26	IAD 21:33	15%	4%	0.6%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON