Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 30 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 124 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day B6 124 LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 274 LAX 11:55 → JFK 20:36 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 124 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:29	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 118 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:37	7%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 979 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 2 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	8%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 960 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:00	JFK 05:16	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 915 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:19	JFK 08:37	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 10 American Flight history →	LAX 21:27	JFK 06:03	10%	4%	0.7%	85%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 07:27	JFK 15:59	10%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 938 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:37	JFK 15:43	12%	3%	0.7%	79%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 00:32	JFK 08:58	13%	3%	0.7%	68%
AA 307 American Flight history →	LAX 08:30	JFK 17:09	14%	5%	0.7%	76%
B6 1524 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:30	JFK 05:01	14%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 30 American Flight history →	LAX 22:23	JFK 07:00	15%	5%	0.7%	70%
B6 9004 JetBlue	LAX 17:57	JFK 02:19	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 934 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:06	JFK 17:18	18%	3%	0.7%	89%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 15:20	JFK 23:57	18%	5%	0.7%	81%
B6 1024 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 22:25	JFK 07:00	18%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 28 American Flight history →	LAX 15:15	JFK 23:54	18%	6%	0.7%	79%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 14:30	JFK 23:10	18%	6%	0.7%	71%
DL 991 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:19	JFK 23:25	19%	5%	0.7%	78%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 09:49	JFK 18:25	20%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 4 American Flight history →	LAX 13:00	JFK 21:34	20%	10%	0.7%	76%
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:35	JFK 21:09	22%	6%	0.7%	82%
DL 951 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:16	JFK 21:22	22%	7%	0.7%	74%
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 11:35	JFK 20:11	24%	7%	0.7%	77%
AA 32 American Flight history →	LAX 11:05	JFK 19:46	25%	10%	0.7%	74%
AA 238 American Flight history →	LAX 10:11	JFK 18:52	25%	9%	0.7%	71%
DL 958 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:08	JFK 18:13	26%	5%	0.7%	83%
DL 972 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:18	JFK 19:30	27%	8%	0.7%	67%
AA 274 American Flight history →	LAX 11:55	JFK 20:36	27%	10%	0.7%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:24 → MSP 06:02DL 430	53m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 15m	89%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	7h 37m	91%	77%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494	50m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → JFK 19:41DL 1316	6h 56m	78%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON