Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2350 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2350 LAX 05:18 → LAS 06:26 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1719 LAX 12:11 → LAS 13:19 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2350 Southwest	LAX 05:18	LAS 06:26	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	LAS 08:27	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:10	LAS 09:33	10%	5%	0.7%	97%
OO 6511 SkyWest	LAX 16:00	LAS 17:22	11%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4280 Southwest	LAX 09:31	LAS 10:40	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1047 United	LAX 10:36	LAS 12:01	13%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 2120 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:32	LAS 16:41	14%	5%	0.6%	69%
F9 3292 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:07	LAS 13:29	14%	8%	0.8%	80%
UA 2403 United	LAX 13:44	LAS 14:55	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
F9 2334 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 17:19	LAS 18:43	15%	8%	0.9%	43%
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	LAS 12:12	15%	4%	0.6%	77%
UA 1108 United	LAX 16:40	LAS 17:52	16%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 4162 Southwest	LAX 15:25	LAS 16:41	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 2529 American Flight history →	LAX 12:17	LAS 13:47	18%	10%	0.6%	57%
WN 2352 Southwest	LAX 13:59	LAS 15:14	20%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1719 Southwest	LAX 12:11	LAS 13:19	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON