tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:24, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:24 → MSP 06:02DL 430 1h 03m Minneapolis MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719 7h 20m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 9h 25m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 53m Houston IAH 08:05 → LGA 12:48UA 1143 8h 57m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:20AA 2490 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609 9h 00m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:50 → ATL 17:13DL 327 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 10h 34m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 2h 36m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 8h 50m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:38 → DFW 05:47AA 971 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → LGA 13:00AA 1056 9h 22m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 34m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:15 → IAD 16:26UA 2268 49m Dulles IAD 17:15 → LGA 18:42UA 4077 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 73% 49%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:50 → ATL 17:13DL 327 47m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 7h 37m 61% 42%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 46m Chicago ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821 7h 22m 56% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON