Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1295 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1295 LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 119 LAX 09:24 → LIH 12:37 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1295 United Flight history →	LAX 08:45	LIH 11:44	11%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 428 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:45	LIH 17:41	16%	5%	0.7%	83%
AS 963 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:30	LIH 11:41	19%	3%	0.9%	75%
AA 119 American Flight history →	LAX 09:24	LIH 12:37	22%	5%	0.6%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 25m Honolulu	HNL 11:19 → LIH 12:13AS 1073	8h 13m	95%	67%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:11AS 933	1h 05m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	7h 36m	84%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON