Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 482 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 482 LAX 07:35 → MCO 15:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 4146 LAX 23:00 → MCO 07:13 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 482 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	MCO 15:35	9%	2%	0.8%	84%
UA 1730 United Flight history →	LAX 23:04	MCO 07:03	11%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 2355 Southwest	LAX 22:51	MCO 06:36	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 718 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:05	MCO 00:07	13%	3%	0.7%	77%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	LAX 10:24	MCO 18:30	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 867 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:34	MCO 18:49	19%	3%	0.8%	69%
AA 1024 American Flight history →	LAX 10:51	MCO 18:56	21%	5%	0.7%	69%
F9 4146 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 23:00	MCO 07:13	25%	7%	1.1%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 08m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245	7h 00m	94%	88%
United Details →	LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416	56m Houston	IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14UA 496	7h 04m	88%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON