Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 461 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 461 LAX 06:04 → MDW 11:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 889 LAX 14:18 → MDW 20:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 461 Southwest	LAX 06:04	MDW 11:53	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2358 Southwest	LAX 00:29	MDW 06:29	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 335 Southwest	LAX 10:44	MDW 16:34	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 889 Southwest	LAX 14:18	MDW 20:08	16%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON