tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 3449 at 11:38, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3449 SkyWest LAX 11:38 MFR 13:49 13% 5% 0.6% no record
AS 2328 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record LAX 13:15 MFR 15:14 6% 2% 0.0% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest 6h 05m 99% 93%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:50 → SEA 19:31AS 698 3h 09m Seattle SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon 7h 14m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:45 → SEA 20:27DL 2640 1h 08m Seattle SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest 5h 26m 91% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:05 → SFO 13:29UA 1245 3h 04m San Francisco SFO 16:33 → MFR 17:54UA 1001 5h 49m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305 2h 14m Seattle SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon 6h 26m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372 1h 31m San Francisco SFO 10:37 → MFR 12:04UA 2322 4h 34m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:30 → MFR 21:16UA 663 8h 30m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON