Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2777 at 22:46 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2777 LAX 22:46 → MIA 07:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 858 LAX 10:39 → MIA 18:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2777 American Flight history →	LAX 22:46	MIA 07:10	11%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 778 American	LAX 20:51	MIA 04:58	12%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	13%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 467 American	LAX 13:48	MIA 22:03	19%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	20%	6%	1.2%	77%
AA 858 American	LAX 10:39	MIA 18:45	25%	7%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 00:38 → DFW 05:47AA 971	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	7h 33m	94%	78%
American Details →	LAX 19:27 → LAS 20:52AA 2785	1h 13m Las Vegas	LAS 22:05 → MIA 05:55 +1AA 1539	7h 28m	88%	76%
Delta Details →	LAX 19:15 → SLC 22:04DL 1483	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	7h 25m	85%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON