tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Missoula on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434 3h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:03 → MSO 12:40DL 1723 6h 05m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 22:46 → MSO 00:23 +1DL 1824 6h 18m 98% 88%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668 1h 37m Portland PDX 10:58 → MSO 13:32AS 2146 · flown by Horizon 5h 32m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 53m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362 7h 23m 92% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092 7h 53m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748 2h 59m Seattle SEA 12:48 → MSO 15:17AS 660 7h 17m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 15:47 → SEA 18:33AS 585 1h 56m Seattle SEA 20:29 → MSO 22:53AS 1435 6h 06m 95% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 09:00 → SEA 11:52AS 482 56m Seattle SEA 12:48 → MSO 15:17AS 660 5h 17m 64% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON