Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 792 LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2198 LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 792 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:15	MSP 11:52	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 430 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:24	MSP 06:02	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 799 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:05	MSP 13:42	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 413 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:15	MSP 16:50	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 914 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:35	MSP 18:11	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2198 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:22	MSP 20:59	11%	3%	0.6%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → LAS 08:27DL 2253	1h 02m Las Vegas	LAS 09:29 → MSP 14:31DL 2261	5h 16m	94%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON