Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1112 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1112 LAX 06:20 → MSY 12:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2032 LAX 10:34 → MSY 16:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1112 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:20	MSY 12:13	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2154 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:00	MSY 21:51	13%	4%	0.7%	73%
WN 2032 Southwest	LAX 10:34	MSY 16:11	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON