Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 425 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 425 LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 962 LAX 10:01 → OGG 12:47 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 425 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:30	OGG 11:07	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 417 United Flight history →	LAX 09:00	OGG 11:46	15%	5%	0.5%	93%
AA 271 American Flight history →	LAX 09:04	OGG 11:44	16%	6%	0.6%	83%
AS 933 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:30	OGG 11:11	20%	3%	0.8%	73%
AS 962 Alaska	LAX 10:01	OGG 12:47	30%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372	59m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573	8h 04m	85%	72%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 05m Honolulu	HNL 10:59 → OGG 11:41AS 1076	7h 41m	90%	67%
Alaska Details →	LAX 10:05 → HNL 12:58AS 803	1h 38m Honolulu	HNL 14:36 → OGG 15:26AS 1136	8h 21m	89%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON