Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 580 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 580 LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest UA 2113 LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 580 United Flight history →	LAX 05:10	ORD 11:27	7%	2%	0.8%	98%
AA 383 American Flight history →	LAX 06:05	ORD 12:32	8%	4%	1.3%	91%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ORD 13:14	13%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 3161 American	LAX 23:31	ORD 05:46	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 991 American	LAX 22:37	ORD 04:45	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 1962 United Flight history →	LAX 23:30	ORD 05:46	14%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:40	ORD 13:46	14%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 1598 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	ORD 14:27	14%	6%	1.1%	90%
UA 353 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	ORD 04:51	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	ORD 14:35	14%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 1433 American Flight history →	LAX 17:50	ORD 00:07	15%	7%	1.0%	62%
UA 1328 United	LAX 22:57	ORD 05:04	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1634 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:15	ORD 23:18	17%	8%	0.7%	67%
AA 1998 American Flight history →	LAX 17:12	ORD 23:28	17%	8%	1.1%	42%
AA 2998 American Flight history →	LAX 09:32	ORD 15:49	19%	8%	1.0%	71%
UA 2780 United	LAX 16:37	ORD 22:40	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2794 United Flight history →	LAX 15:14	ORD 21:22	23%	9%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
AA 2891 American Flight history →	LAX 11:28	ORD 17:39	24%	12%	1.2%	74%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:24	ORD 17:35	24%	10%	0.7%	66%
AA 3192 American	LAX 13:23	ORD 19:55	24%	10%	1.0%	no record
UA 2487 United Flight history →	LAX 14:26	ORD 20:40	25%	10%	0.6%	69%
AA 3075 American	LAX 10:28	ORD 16:50	25%	10%	1.2%	no record
UA 457 United Flight history →	LAX 12:50	ORD 19:05	25%	10%	0.7%	69%
UA 2113 United Flight history →	LAX 10:45	ORD 17:04	26%	10%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON