Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2222 LAX 07:08 → PHL 15:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 738 LAX 10:04 → PHL 18:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2222 American	LAX 07:08	PHL 15:39	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2010 American Flight history →	LAX 00:08	PHL 08:02	11%	3%	0.7%	72%
AA 2148 American	LAX 14:03	PHL 22:30	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 3276 American Flight history →	LAX 22:46	PHL 07:00	15%	3%	0.8%	63%
AA 1528 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	PHL 16:23	17%	5%	0.8%	88%
AA 738 American Flight history →	LAX 10:04	PHL 18:45	19%	7%	0.8%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:24 → MSP 06:02DL 430	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 20m	94%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	7h 24m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	57m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	7h 44m	86%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON