Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2364 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2364 LAX 06:49 → PHX 08:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2032 LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2364 Southwest	LAX 06:49	PHX 08:13	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2712 American	LAX 06:22	PHX 07:57	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5441 SkyWest	LAX 21:04	PHX 22:40	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4077 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:41	PHX 19:14	10%	5%	0.6%	88%
OO 5662 SkyWest	LAX 16:14	PHX 17:49	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 836 Southwest	LAX 08:30	PHX 09:55	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:46	PHX 15:21	11%	6%	0.6%	88%
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:21	PHX 09:56	12%	6%	0.6%	85%
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:01	PHX 11:34	12%	6%	0.6%	86%
OO 5419 SkyWest	LAX 10:30	PHX 12:07	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 374 United	LAX 19:22	PHX 20:57	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2365 Southwest	LAX 13:27	PHX 14:52	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2388 American	LAX 09:53	PHX 11:25	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2367 Southwest	LAX 18:22	PHX 19:51	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 1062 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 13:56	PHX 15:31	18%	8%	1.1%	78%
AA 2211 American	LAX 18:52	PHX 20:27	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1994 American Flight history →	LAX 13:10	PHX 14:40	21%	8%	0.6%	65%
AA 2032 American Flight history →	LAX 16:39	PHX 18:10	22%	7%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON