Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:24, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2039 United Flight history →	LAX 09:00	PIT 16:51	9%	5%	0.5%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAX 11:28 → ORD 17:39AA 2891	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 20:40 → PIT 23:22AA 4527 · flown by Republic	8h 54m	100%	93%
United Details →	LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667	3h 42m Dulles	IAD 22:30 → PIT 23:36UA 3540 · flown by Republic	9h 57m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:24 → MSP 06:02DL 430	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845	7h 09m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	2h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 19:49 → PIT 22:53DL 1134	8h 38m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188	7h 55m	99%	92%
United Details →	LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic	7h 13m	97%	91%
American Details →	LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:37AA 118	1h 49m New York	JFK 16:26 → PIT 18:05AA 4734 · flown by Republic	9h 05m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:49DL 3122	9h 49m	99%	90%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 10:45 → BOS 19:20DL 437	50m Boston	BOS 20:10 → PIT 22:13DL 5679 · flown by Republic	8h 28m	75%	66%
JetBlue Details →	LAX 12:35 → JFK 21:09B6 224	46m New York	JFK 21:55 → PIT 23:46B6 1195	8h 11m	71%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON