tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Las Vegas, leaving 19:55, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 462 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:54 RDU 17:46 19% 3% 0.6% 79%
AA 1754 American LAX 08:59 RDU 17:22 21% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:19 → JFK 08:37DL 915 3h 45m New York JFK 12:22 → RDU 14:04DL 5028 · flown by Endeavor 10h 45m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194 3h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 17:51 → RDU 00:06 +1DL 402 9h 25m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:05 → ORD 12:32AA 383 3h 30m Chicago ORD 16:02 → RDU 19:16AA 4503 · flown by Republic 10h 11m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399 3h 06m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 9h 17m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 2h 46m Chicago ORD 14:13 → RDU 17:27UA 2091 9h 17m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:17AA 2010 2h 13m Philadelphia PHL 10:30 → RDU 11:53AA 3152 8h 45m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:04 → PHL 18:44AA 738 3h 16m Philadelphia PHL 22:00 → RDU 23:32AA 2692 10h 28m 100% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 07:12 → CLT 15:05AA 1952 46m Charlotte CLT 15:51 → RDU 16:55AA 1894 6h 43m 71% 60%
AmericanDetails → LAX 09:19 → CLT 17:08AA 3175 48m Charlotte CLT 17:56 → RDU 18:57AA 1904 6h 38m 70% 59%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 48m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518 6h 57m 62% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON