Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4637 LAX 16:20 → RNO 18:02 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2152 LAX 11:19 → RNO 12:46 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4637 SkyWest	LAX 16:20	RNO 18:02	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5410 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:17	RNO 10:56	9%	4%	0.6%	94%
DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:20	RNO 09:53	9%	4%	0.6%	96%
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:58	RNO 14:25	10%	6%	0.6%	91%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:50	RNO 18:21	11%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 2152 Southwest	LAX 11:19	RNO 12:46	13%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON