Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 3746 at 22:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3746 LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 3716 LAX 08:50 → SAN 09:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3746 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:45	SAN 23:42	9%	3%	0.9%	87%
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:20	SAN 19:17	12%	6%	0.8%	84%
UA 582 United	LAX 16:29	SAN 17:37	13%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1100 United	LAX 19:04	SAN 19:57	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 4001 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:11	SAN 15:08	15%	8%	0.7%	82%
UA 1068 United	LAX 10:37	SAN 11:46	18%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:50	SAN 09:52	22%	10%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON