Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 545 SkyWest	LAX 21:03	SBA 21:58	10%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 5893 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:46	SBA 13:41	12%	8%	0.8%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	5h 00m	92%	87%
United Details →	LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45UA 2866	6h 31m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315	1h 01m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon	5h 37m	90%	81%
American Details →	LAX 13:10 → PHX 14:40AA 1994	2h 26m Phoenix	PHX 17:06 → SBA 18:55AA 1855	5h 45m	91%	80%
United Details →	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	3h 07m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479	8h 13m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	LAX 10:47 → SEA 13:35AS 798	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 16:00 → SBA 18:24AS 610	7h 37m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON