Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2980 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2980 LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 6476 LAX 09:39 → SEA 12:37 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2980 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SEA 10:00	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1045 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:09	SEA 14:55	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2606 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:00	SEA 16:40	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
OO 6047 SkyWest	LAX 16:40	SEA 19:44	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 6371 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:41	SEA 22:30	13%	4%	0.6%	74%
DL 1551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:17	SEA 22:05	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2640 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:45	SEA 20:27	13%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 304 Delta	LAX 09:35	SEA 12:20	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 748 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SEA 09:49	14%	3%	0.7%	88%
AS 585 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 15:47	SEA 18:33	14%	4%	0.7%	87%
F9 1177 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 15:04	SEA 17:51	15%	5%	1.6%	82%
AS 614 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 20:09	SEA 22:58	15%	3%	0.7%	88%
OO 6043 SkyWest	LAX 13:05	SEA 16:07	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 698 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 16:50	SEA 19:31	16%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:00	SEA 15:51	17%	5%	0.6%	91%
AS 798 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:47	SEA 13:35	18%	3%	0.7%	88%
OO 5736 SkyWest	LAX 08:47	SEA 11:51	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 1305 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 12:47	SEA 15:33	18%	4%	0.7%	76%
AS 457 Alaska	LAX 08:59	SEA 11:46	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 770 Alaska	LAX 18:50	SEA 21:32	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 482 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 09:00	SEA 11:52	20%	3%	0.7%	85%
OO 6476 SkyWest	LAX 09:39	SEA 12:37	23%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON