Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 35 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 781 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 781 LAX 06:01 → SFO 07:33 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 519 LAX 08:20 → SFO 09:43 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 781 United	LAX 06:01	SFO 07:33	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SFO 08:21	11%	3%	0.9%	94%
UA 233 United Flight history →	LAX 17:05	SFO 18:33	15%	6%	0.6%	83%
DL 689 Delta	LAX 12:01	SFO 13:26	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
OO 6274 SkyWest	LAX 07:20	SFO 08:51	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 6276 SkyWest	LAX 14:07	SFO 15:44	17%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 2199 United	LAX 10:59	SFO 12:38	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 726 Alaska	LAX 17:15	SFO 18:37	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2056 United Flight history →	LAX 21:34	SFO 23:02	18%	7%	0.6%	61%
WN 3178 Southwest	LAX 15:49	SFO 17:11	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1245 United Flight history →	LAX 12:05	SFO 13:29	19%	7%	0.6%	79%
AS 1501 Alaska	LAX 07:16	SFO 08:39	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 469 United Flight history →	LAX 13:26	SFO 15:01	19%	8%	0.6%	77%
AA 1110 American	LAX 10:55	SFO 12:27	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:38	SFO 22:14	20%	8%	0.9%	63%
DL 2197 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:16	SFO 19:54	20%	7%	0.9%	45%
UA 2019 United Flight history →	LAX 16:14	SFO 17:42	20%	8%	0.6%	68%
WN 2374 Southwest	LAX 17:56	SFO 19:18	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1372 United Flight history →	LAX 07:30	SFO 09:06	20%	6%	0.6%	49%
AS 91 Alaska	LAX 14:54	SFO 16:17	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2593 Southwest	LAX 11:14	SFO 12:35	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2797 Southwest	LAX 13:24	SFO 14:45	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3169 Southwest	LAX 07:49	SFO 09:11	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2837 United	LAX 18:57	SFO 20:36	21%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 3138 American Flight history →	LAX 17:33	SFO 18:46	22%	7%	0.6%	69%
UA 1905 United	LAX 09:26	SFO 11:02	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 1693 Delta	LAX 20:57	SFO 22:22	23%	7%	0.9%	no record
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 08:39	SFO 10:17	24%	8%	2.9%	50%
OO 3386 SkyWest	LAX 10:07	SFO 11:38	25%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 2267 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:25	SFO 15:44	26%	7%	0.9%	50%
DL 1715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:20	SFO 10:42	26%	6%	0.9%	52%
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:41	SFO 11:12	27%	9%	0.8%	63%
UA 1195 United Flight history →	LAX 20:10	SFO 21:38	28%	9%	0.6%	28%
AS 1406 Alaska	LAX 13:55	SFO 15:18	29%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 519 Alaska	LAX 08:20	SFO 09:43	30%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON