Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2326 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 2326 LAX 06:57 → SJC 08:16 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1420 LAX 20:52 → SJC 22:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2326 Southwest	LAX 06:57	SJC 08:16	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
OO 3849 SkyWest	LAX 14:36	SJC 16:09	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3847 SkyWest	LAX 07:50	SJC 09:18	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:57	SJC 14:12	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 2378 Southwest	LAX 09:52	SJC 11:10	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2449 Southwest	LAX 15:11	SJC 16:30	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1380 Delta	LAX 09:26	SJC 10:50	9%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 678 Southwest	LAX 17:06	SJC 18:24	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:17	SJC 19:32	9%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 1316 Southwest	LAX 20:28	SJC 21:46	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	LAX 16:06	SJC 17:27	11%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 1420 Delta	LAX 20:52	SJC 22:15	13%	5%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON