Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 15 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2382 LAX 09:04 → SMF 10:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2383 LAX 18:52 → SMF 20:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2382 Southwest	LAX 09:04	SMF 10:32	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5537 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:27	SMF 11:13	8%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:10	SMF 08:41	9%	3%	0.5%	74%
OO 6278 SkyWest	LAX 16:36	SMF 18:12	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5430 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:18	SMF 22:57	9%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 4083 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:35	SMF 23:07	9%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:05	SMF 10:37	9%	4%	0.6%	95%
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:38	SMF 18:11	9%	4%	0.6%	88%
OO 6279 SkyWest	LAX 09:31	SMF 11:09	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 313 SkyWest	LAX 13:25	SMF 15:04	10%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 134 SkyWest	LAX 11:58	SMF 13:37	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4171 Southwest	LAX 16:06	SMF 17:32	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:41	SMF 20:10	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 2384 Southwest	LAX 11:49	SMF 13:16	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2383 Southwest	LAX 18:52	SMF 20:18	13%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON