Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 5379 at 11:35, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5379 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 11:35	SUN 15:00	10%	5%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	99%	92%
United Details →	LAX 13:26 → SFO 15:01UA 469	3h 54m San Francisco	SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest	7h 25m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	4h 02m	93%	89%
United Details →	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	3h 09m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON