Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3776 LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 3205 LAX 16:36 → TUS 18:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3776 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:10	TUS 15:50	11%	8%	0.6%	81%
OO 6296 SkyWest	LAX 08:39	TUS 10:20	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 138 SkyWest	LAX 09:30	TUS 11:15	13%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 6292 SkyWest	LAX 16:23	TUS 18:02	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3205 Southwest	LAX 16:36	TUS 18:11	16%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON