Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 550 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 550 LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3453 LGA 16:59 → ATL 19:29 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 550 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	ATL 08:23	6%	2%	0.9%	91%
DL 342 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:59	ATL 09:20	6%	2%	0.9%	94%
DL 364 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:00	ATL 10:29	9%	3%	1.0%	92%
YX 4617 Republic	LGA 06:36	ATL 08:52	9%	3%	1.3%	no record
DL 992 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:00	ATL 11:32	12%	4%	1.1%	87%
YX 4600 Republic	LGA 09:13	ATL 11:52	13%	5%	1.5%	no record
F9 3287 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 06:29	ATL 09:17	14%	6%	2.6%	63%
DL 989 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:00	ATL 12:28	14%	5%	1.2%	84%
DL 990 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:59	ATL 14:31	15%	6%	1.3%	83%
YX 4349 Republic	LGA 12:42	ATL 15:17	16%	9%	2.0%	no record
DL 993 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:59	ATL 13:20	16%	5%	1.2%	83%
DL 994 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:59	ATL 15:26	17%	8%	1.2%	82%
DL 988 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:59	ATL 16:30	18%	10%	1.5%	76%
DL 974 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	ATL 18:02	18%	12%	1.1%	81%
DL 968 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ATL 20:24	19%	12%	1.0%	76%
DL 969 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ATL 19:07	19%	13%	1.0%	70%
DL 964 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:00	ATL 21:20	22%	14%	1.1%	71%
YX 4346 Republic	LGA 16:29	ATL 19:07	23%	13%	3.8%	no record
DL 975 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	ATL 23:43	23%	12%	1.1%	68%
DL 970 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:59	ATL 22:24	23%	14%	1.2%	66%
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:12	ATL 16:44	24%	11%	3.1%	59%
YX 4348 Republic	LGA 18:48	ATL 21:22	29%	14%	2.1%	no record
F9 3453 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 16:59	ATL 19:29	44%	23%	3.9%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON