Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5254 LGA 09:52 → BGR 11:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest YX 4353 LGA 15:56 → BGR 17:39 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5254 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:52	BGR 11:16	6%	2%	0.7%	85%
AA 4488 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:13	BGR 13:59	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 4343 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:03	BGR 13:41	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 5010 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 14:39	BGR 16:08	9%	3%	0.7%	73%
DL 5396 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 22:09	BGR 23:38	11%	5%	0.9%	66%
YX 4353 Republic	LGA 15:56	BGR 17:39	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON