Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4176 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4176 LGA 07:09 → BNA 08:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1010 LGA 19:47 → BNA 21:02 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4176 Southwest	LGA 07:09	BNA 08:20	8%	2%	2.1%	no record
DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:05	BNA 08:18	12%	3%	2.0%	90%
YX 4370 Republic	LGA 09:08	BNA 10:46	14%	4%	1.9%	no record
YX 5617 Republic	LGA 10:30	BNA 11:55	18%	5%	2.2%	no record
AA 4481 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:54	BNA 13:33	19%	6%	2.2%	70%
DL 2748 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:55	BNA 15:31	21%	10%	2.0%	82%
WN 2149 Southwest	LGA 11:27	BNA 12:36	21%	5%	2.8%	no record
AA 4380 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:09	BNA 16:35	29%	10%	4.8%	65%
WN 3268 Southwest	LGA 21:14	BNA 22:22	31%	12%	1.4%	no record
AA 980 American	LGA 20:40	BNA 21:56	32%	16%	1.6%	no record
WN 2395 Southwest	LGA 14:32	BNA 15:41	32%	11%	3.7%	no record
DL 1010 Delta	LGA 19:47	BNA 21:02	33%	15%	1.5%	no record
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:30	BNA 12:00	22%	10%	1.9%	78%
DL 4723 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:15	BNA 21:00	37%	21%	20.8%	63%
DL 5002 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:27	BNA 19:19	38%	18%	15.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON