Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4394 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–48%.

Safest bet that day YX 4394 LGA 06:08 → BOS 07:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4724 LGA 17:22 → BOS 18:36 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4394 Republic	LGA 06:08	BOS 07:15	4%	2%	2.1%	no record
DL 5793 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:59	BOS 08:23	5%	2%	2.2%	96%
YX 5696 Republic	LGA 06:07	BOS 07:09	5%	2%	2.2%	no record
DL 5759 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:00	BOS 09:19	7%	2%	2.1%	88%
YX 4628 Republic	LGA 08:40	BOS 09:54	8%	2%	2.1%	no record
DL 5728 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:00	BOS 11:23	14%	6%	3.0%	86%
YX 5591 Republic	LGA 09:11	BOS 10:25	15%	4%	2.3%	no record
AA 1050 American	LGA 10:06	BOS 11:21	17%	7%	3.0%	no record
DL 5745 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:00	BOS 12:22	17%	7%	3.0%	81%
DL 5761 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:00	BOS 13:21	20%	10%	3.1%	80%
AA 1571 American	LGA 11:40	BOS 12:58	23%	9%	3.7%	no record
DL 5758 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:00	BOS 14:23	25%	14%	3.6%	80%
DL 5739 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:59	BOS 15:23	28%	19%	4.6%	80%
YX 4502 Republic	LGA 21:17	BOS 22:31	33%	15%	4.1%	no record
DL 5839 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:57	BOS 23:11	34%	15%	4.2%	78%worse than usual
DL 1739 Delta	LGA 21:20	BOS 22:42	34%	18%	1.6%	no record
AA 4430 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:44	BOS 17:20	34%	20%	6.0%	55%
DL 5727 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:00	BOS 16:33	36%	20%	5.3%	63%
DL 5746 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	BOS 20:45	39%	21%	6.2%	57%
DL 5819 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:00	BOS 17:37	41%	27%	7.7%	58%
DL 5738 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:00	BOS 19:40	43%	27%	5.5%	65%
AA 4768 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:10	BOS 20:24	44%	27%	5.4%	63%
DL 5725 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:00	BOS 18:40	44%	25%	5.7%	69%worse than usual
DL 2181 Delta	LGA 20:01	BOS 21:07	46%	22%	2.0%	no record
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:22	BOS 18:36	48%	25%	5.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON