tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:30DL 2946 8h 30m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:06 → MSP 19:58DL 2313 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 46m 94% 86%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:23 → BZN 15:40AA 947 11h 10m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 34m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:00 → DEN 12:20UA 716 1h 19m Denver DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513 7h 27m 91% 82%
AmericanDetails → LGA 14:00 → DFW 17:05AA 1056 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:09 → BZN 22:11AA 1774 10h 11m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:23 → ORD 09:09AA 392 1h 09m Chicago ORD 10:18 → BZN 12:57AA 1080 7h 34m 86% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → DFW 19:15AA 1608 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:09 → BZN 22:11AA 1774 8h 11m 73% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON