Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3084 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 3084 LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3133 LGA 18:33 → CLT 20:31 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3084 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	CLT 07:58	4%	2%	0.8%	96%
YX 5719 Republic	LGA 09:31	CLT 11:30	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2036 American Flight history →	LGA 10:10	CLT 12:05	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 3279 American Flight history →	LGA 08:13	CLT 10:02	6%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 1150 American Flight history →	LGA 12:10	CLT 14:14	7%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 5068 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 07:13	CLT 09:01	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 2033 American Flight history →	LGA 14:31	CLT 16:53	8%	4%	0.8%	64%
DL 5705 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:39	CLT 21:37	10%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 5046 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 11:21	CLT 13:07	11%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 5048 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 14:11	CLT 15:57	12%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 1942 American Flight history →	LGA 18:15	CLT 20:33	15%	5%	0.8%	67%
AA 2232 American	LGA 17:10	CLT 19:08	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 16:54	CLT 18:40	19%	3%	0.7%	68%
F9 3133 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 18:33	CLT 20:31	32%	8%	0.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON