Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5016 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:25	CVG 10:33	10%	4%	2.1%	90%
DL 4987 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:45	CVG 12:51	19%	8%	3.7%	81%
DL 4999 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:00	CVG 19:26	31%	19%	6.4%	69%
DL 4949 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:59	CVG 16:11	31%	15%	4.9%	69%
DL 5517 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:10	CVG 22:35	40%	27%	11.6%	60%
DL 4929 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 18:20	CVG 20:44	60%	36%	12.5%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON