Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4178 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4178 LGA 06:18 → DAL 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2845 LGA 16:31 → DAL 18:51 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4178 Southwest	LGA 06:18	DAL 08:40	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 2397 Southwest	LGA 09:44	DAL 12:02	12%	2%	1.6%	no record
WN 4425 Southwest	LGA 12:29	DAL 14:47	17%	6%	2.0%	no record
WN 2452 Southwest	LGA 19:29	DAL 21:49	24%	9%	1.8%	no record
WN 2845 Southwest	LGA 16:31	DAL 18:51	24%	8%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON