Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5770 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 5770 LGA 06:05 → DCA 07:23 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 5724 LGA 19:15 → DCA 20:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DCA 07:23	3%	1%	0.6%	89%
AA 4487 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:27	DCA 07:57	3%	1%	0.6%	85%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:50	DCA 10:15	6%	1%	0.6%	83%
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:14	DCA 09:45	6%	1%	0.6%	36%
YX 4595 Republic	LGA 10:42	DCA 12:16	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4754 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:21	DCA 11:01	6%	1%	0.6%	61%
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:20	DCA 12:42	8%	2%	0.6%	78%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:42	DCA 15:14	10%	2%	0.7%	76%
YX 4691 Republic	LGA 15:34	DCA 17:16	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 5876 Republic	LGA 16:51	DCA 18:20	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 5827 Republic	LGA 21:23	DCA 22:52	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:40	DCA 16:19	13%	3%	0.7%	61%
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:15	DCA 18:59	13%	5%	0.7%	62%
AA 4473 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:51	DCA 21:20	14%	4%	0.7%	91%
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:28	DCA 19:09	15%	4%	0.7%	74%
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:15	DCA 20:59	15%	5%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON