Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2401 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2401 LGA 07:16 → DEN 09:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 166 LGA 14:19 → DEN 16:18 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2401 Southwest	LGA 07:16	DEN 09:14	9%	2%	1.3%	no record
UA 644 United	LGA 07:28	DEN 09:52	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:45	DEN 09:53	12%	3%	1.1%	84%
UA 2200 United Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DEN 14:43	15%	6%	0.9%	87%
UA 716 United Flight history →	LGA 10:00	DEN 12:20	16%	4%	0.9%	95%worse than usual
WN 2403 Southwest	LGA 10:16	DEN 12:15	20%	4%	1.7%	no record
WN 2404 Southwest	LGA 21:14	DEN 23:13	23%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 2046 United Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DEN 21:02	24%	10%	0.8%	71%
UA 2028 United	LGA 15:29	DEN 18:01	25%	9%	1.0%	no record
DL 710 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	DEN 21:35	25%	11%	1.4%	61%
UA 2834 United Flight history →	LGA 16:59	DEN 19:35	26%	9%	0.9%	60%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:20	DEN 16:41	28%	7%	1.3%	71%
WN 223 Southwest	LGA 15:59	DEN 18:00	30%	8%	1.9%	no record
WN 166 Southwest	LGA 14:19	DEN 16:18	31%	8%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON