Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1597 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 1597 LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3423 LGA 20:32 → DFW 23:08 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1597 American Flight history →	LGA 06:30	DFW 09:23	7%	3%	2.0%	89%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	DFW 09:35	11%	5%	1.6%	78%
AA 1987 American Flight history →	LGA 08:35	DFW 11:25	12%	5%	2.0%	81%
AA 3289 American Flight history →	LGA 07:30	DFW 10:23	12%	5%	2.0%	77%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:30	DFW 12:09	15%	5%	1.4%	82%
AA 2088 American Flight history →	LGA 11:02	DFW 13:37	18%	7%	2.0%	85%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DFW 15:10	18%	8%	1.4%	75%
AA 3113 American	LGA 10:02	DFW 12:37	18%	7%	2.0%	no record
AA 1609 American Flight history →	LGA 13:08	DFW 15:58	18%	10%	2.6%	71%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	LGA 14:00	DFW 17:05	21%	9%	2.6%	65%
AA 1608 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	DFW 19:15	24%	10%	2.7%	63%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:01	25%	11%	1.7%	65%
AA 2178 American	LGA 16:29	DFW 19:19	26%	11%	2.6%	no record
AA 2238 American	LGA 19:10	DFW 21:52	27%	12%	2.6%	no record
DL 352 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	DFW 22:02	30%	15%	1.7%	55%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	LGA 17:22	DFW 20:06	30%	13%	2.5%	25%
AA 2092 American Flight history →	LGA 20:10	DFW 22:53	32%	13%	2.2%	59%
AA 1043 American Flight history →	LGA 18:15	DFW 21:00	33%	13%	2.8%	61%
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 20:32	DFW 23:08	40%	18%	3.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON