Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4904 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 17:55	DSM 20:01	16%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 4395 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DSM 20:51	22%	9%	0.7%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	7h 35m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	5h 45m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 09:03 → DSM 09:52DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 47m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 09:21 → DSM 10:37DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	5h 37m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 13:17 → DSM 14:33DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	7h 38m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LGA 14:29 → DTW 16:34DL 308	3h 26m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → DSM 20:59DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor	7h 30m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	7h 53m	100%	88%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 09:20 → DSM 10:40UA 466	5h 30m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON