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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 48m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 6h 54m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:59 → ATL 15:26DL 994 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 19:06 → ECP 19:20DL 3053 7h 21m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 7h 12m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 7h 37m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → LGA 14:00 → DFW 17:05AA 1056 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:41 → ECP 21:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy 8h 59m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → ECP 11:32AA 5262 · flown by PSA 6h 32m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150 2h 33m Charlotte CLT 16:47 → ECP 17:31AA 5297 · flown by PSA 6h 21m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON