Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5712 LGA 08:55 → GRR 11:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5683 LGA 20:56 → GRR 23:06 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5712 Republic	LGA 08:55	GRR 11:04	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4775 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:15	GRR 12:24	6%	2%	0.7%	50%
DL 5104 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 15:06	GRR 17:01	8%	3%	0.7%	72%
YX 5683 Republic	LGA 20:56	GRR 23:06	13%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON